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It doesn’t take too much analysis to realise that statistically Japan has the highest percentage of elderly citizens compared to any other country in the world.

Off the back of a post-world war 2 baby boom, Japan reached peak population of 128 million people in 2010.  Since that peak approximately 1.34 million less people now reside in Japan and trends suggest that the population decline is only going to continue.  Indeed, without intervention, forecasts predict the population to shrink to 88 million people by the year 2060.

Currently 27.4% of the population is aged over 65.  Conversely only 12.3% of the current population is under the age of 15 with the balance of the population between 16-65 making up the remaining 60%.  By comparison Australia’s population is made up of 18.9% (0-14), 66.2% (15-64) and 14.9% (65+).

There are a number of reasons contributing to the ‘explosion’ in seniors in Japan with the increased life expectancy of citizens  being the most obvious.

According to the World Health Organisation, on average Japanese people are now expected to live until 84.2 years (Men 81.1 years, and women 87.1 years.)

From Cradle to Coffin

Another key factor in all of this is the decline in the Japanese birth rate.  As with many modern countries, families these days tend to be smaller, more women are working longer before starting families (if indeed they do), and more and more people are deciding to avoid taking on the challenge and responsibilities of becoming parents altogether.

Japan’s Births Vs Deaths 1950 – 2008

The chart above shows the decline in babies being born as a comparison to the annual death-rate.  In recent years, deaths have out-numbered births and with minimal foreign migrant intakes, it doesn’t take Einstein to realise that the population can only continue to decrease in this situation.

Social Makeup

Japan’s social makeup is different to most countries with many idiosyncrasies , though that too is beginning to change.  The traditional social model was that once married, the man of the family was expected to be the provider while the wife would stay at home and raise the children.  In addition to this, the eldest son of the family was expected to live with, and care for his parents as they age in exchange for inheriting the family house and becoming the head of the family.  This model can still be seen all over Japan, though it is definitely being challenged. 

As a westerner looking in, the most obvious flaw in the tradition is the inherent gender bias which assumes that females will not desire a professional career and will be happy to play second fiddle while the husband provides.  In recent years this has certainly been challenged by Japanese working females with many career women taking it up to their male counterparts.  Indeed, the government is encouraging more women into the workforce to help cover the labour shortage. However with limited child support and workplaces that provide little to no support for female staff taking leave to start families, many women are left with making the choice of career or family.  The declining birth rate suggests that many are making the choice to work.

The other recent dynamic entering Japanese society is the social acknowledgment and gradual acceptance of homosexuality as an option.  There is still a massive gap in this space compared to western countries, but if pop-culture is a reasonable measure, the number of openly gay and/or transgender celebrities gracing the TV screens has increased dramatically over recent years.

Respect thy Elder

A key element that makes up Japanese society is that respect for people older or more experienced than you is embedded into children as soon as they are able to interpret the world.  The best example is at school where children can basically categorise all other students into three types:

Senpai:  Anyone in a grade above them

Tame:  Anyone in the same grade level

Kohai:  Anyone in a grade lower than them

Kohai are trained (sometimes to a borderline bullying level) that they are subservient to their Senpai. They are expected to use honorific (polite) style Japanese, and in the case of school sporting clubs will be forced to do the ‘dirty jobs’ by their Senpai. 

Naturally, as the cycle of years pass through and children advance through the grades they will be able to unleash the same level of authority on their younger kohai below them, and so on and so forth.

The one safe haven  in all of this is the ‘tame’ or the same grade students where there are no expectations and students can treat each other equally and respect is earned on virtue.

This ‘respect for elders’ is embedded into all parts of Japanese society, so in effect, anyone who is older than you is your senpai.  The dynamic can change a bit in a work place, where it isn’t necessarily how ‘old’ an individual is, but rather ‘how long’ they have worked at a company for that determines the ‘Senpai – Kohai’ dynamic.

There are a range of positives that come out of this model, and over my years in Japan I have certainly observed that there is genuine respect for older/ageing people.

The flip side of it is that in a work place, staff are rewarded more so on ‘longevity’ rather than raw talent.  This dynamic has also created a situation where people are often uncomfortable to ‘upset the apple cart’ as they know that if they can stick around they will be rewarded eventually.  It also means that having mandated ‘retirement ages’ is something that people who are working up an organisations’ ranks are going to want to keep as the sooner the ‘old geezers’ retire, the sooner they can assume senior leadership roles.  If retirement is forced by age, then it allows for a ‘painless’ and organised process where no-body can be judged for wanting to push people out of an organisation and everyone keeps face. 

*Note:  this simplified explanation isn’t to say that talent counts for nothing, but talent certainly isn’t everything.

In my opinion, this ‘senpai-kohai’ dynamic, while a cornerstone of Japanese society, is something which is going to have to evolve in order for Japan to reach it’s full potential, and indeed, to get through the challenges presented by it’s shifting demographics.

Ageing – Aged – Super Aged

An interesting observation over the last 15 years or so has been the gradual shift in terminology used to describe Japan’s shifting demographics.

Originally the term used was  高齢化社会(Koreika shakai) which literally translates to ‘Ageing Society’, and suggested that the change was still in process.

With a large proportion of people then shifting into retirement the language shifted to 高齢社会 (Korei Shakai), which translates to ‘Aged Society’ and acknowledged that the society had gone through that state of change.

More recently, all Japanese media are referring to their society as the 超高齢社会 (Cho-korei Shakai) or “Super-Aged Society”. 

Looking at the demographic pyramids, and with the seemingly ever increasing life expectancies of Japanese, one wonders whether they’ll need to add another “Super” or two onto their terminology before this is all over and done with!

Government Policy

Clearly something has to change if Japan is going to come out the other side of its demographic transformation.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, now Japan’s longest serving prime minister, has been very vocal on Japan’s need to change.  His “Abenomics” policies have focussed on stimulating the Japanese economy and has had some success to date, though detractors will say not enough.

https://www.japan.go.jp/abenomics/index.html

In February 2018, the Japanese government released a draft policy called “General Principles Concerning Measures for the Ageing Society”.  Amongst other things it recommends changes to make it easier for the population to work longer if they want to and ensuring that working hours are reduced to 40 hours per week (to help prevent burnout which is another issue for the Japanese population).

https://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/japan/socsec/aging.html

Another relevant policy is related to Japan’s push to advance Robotics Technology as both a means to replace labour shortages, and also to provide technology that will help care for a potentially super-super-super aged society.  It will also help position Japan as a world leader in the field of robotics (if it isn’t already).

http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2015/pdf/0123_01b.pdf

There are a range of other relevant policies such as immigration and support for rural and regional areas which is mostly covered by the Japan Revitalisation Strategy 2014, and as more relevant strategies and policies are released I’ll be sure to add them to this blog.

https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/keizaisaisei/pdf/honbunEN.pdf

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